***EXCLUSIVE BREAKDOWN*** by The Fiscal Corruptocrat
Here's the tale of another agenda driven idiot whose either absolutely focused on pushing his beliefs on people or blinded by his self-perceived immense intellect to separate fantasy from reality.
***WARNING: The following contains a healthy dose of facts and sarcasm. If you cry easily, have low self esteem, a well below average IQ or are offended by logic and reason, please do not continue reading.
The Red Deer Advocate in Alberta recently published an article about the local economy's dependence on energy as it's primary driver. Fair enough. Especially since they're covering a presentation made by a non partisan research group. Ricardo Acuna is the Executive Director of the Parkland Institute (said non partisan group) and he's apparently not happy with Canada's Progressive Conservatives "continuing to rely heavily on the energy sector to drive the economy."
Wait a minute...non partisan, right? Singling out one group in particular...? I think I see where this is going.
Mr. Acuna (remember, he's the Executive Director) thinks that in a mere 10 years time, "no one will want what we are selling (oil)." What's this 'we' business? I thought 'we' were non partisan? Alas, Ricardo seems to subscribe to the idea that, at least in Alberta, they're going to be running out of oil real soon. (We'll touch on this in a minute.) He fears that they'll be "scrambling to find something to replace it" and thinks they should become more "visionary" so their local economy is "sustainable" when they're "selling less of it or none of it".
That's quite the statement there. A little fear mongering maybe. Perhaps a little more than a hint at 'peak oil' theories.
Ricardo brought his audiences attention to Norway and their state owned petroleum fund (Statens pensjonsfond - Utland or, for us English speaking folks, The Government Pension Fund - Global) which is funded by their state owned oil production company Statoil. This fund has an estimated $300 billion in USD terms. The idea is to have this fund supplement Norway's revenues once the oil production starts to decline. It has been predicted that their oil discoveries are past the point of peak production. ALL of their oil sources, I'm not sure about, but somebody's claiming they're approaching the end of the line. According to Wikipedia (take it for what it's worth), the revenue from oil production will "decline over the next decades." If I can mix my math and big words correctly, I think decades means something like 10 years plus 10 years plus 10 years, etc. I know, I know, I'm starting to get confused myself, but to keep it simple, I think they mean at least 20 years and possibly 30 or 40 years plus.
Ok, so Ricardo thinks Alberta should follow Norway down that same path because, oh gosh! In 10 years time they're going to be plum outta' oil! Problem is, Alberta's only got a mere $14.5 billion in a reserve fund (akin to Norway's) which ain't going to cover the spread.
I feel kind of bad for Alberta, don't you? They're lagging way behind Norway in their capital reserves, they're going to be completely out of oil in 10 years and they haven't even begun to become 'visionary' enough to do anything about it. Instead of sitting back and watching the collapse, I figured I'd do a little research to see if I could help out in any way.
What I found is, Mr. Acuna is full of sh*t or just plain dumb.
For whatever reason, we often tend to think that when somebody has a fancy title attached to their name (like 'Executive Director' of a non partisan research group) that they know what they're talking about. That doesn't always hold water. Or, in this case, we should probably say 'oil'.
Alberta just happens to be conveniently wrapped around the Athabasca Oil Sands. A 54,000 square mile treasure trove of accessible oil that's basically situated in a 'no mans land' prime for mining. The funny thing about the Athabasca Oil Sands is that it contains approximately 1.7 TRILLION barrels of bitumen which equates to approximately the same amount of the entire worlds proven reserves of petroleum. Stop. Think about that for second...
In one fell swoop, we've basically DOUBLED the entire worlds proven oil reserves. Peak oil? Alberta running out of oil in 10 years? Mr. Acuna, I think there's a problem with your figures...
But wait FC - isn't it too expensive to extract this stuff?
When Mr. Acuna wasn't looking (he probably had his head down, feverishly scanning the intense research documentation he used for his speech and didn't seem to notice), the 'visionary' people working in Alberta have been constantly improving extraction techniques to make oil sands economically viable at lower and lower per barrel crude prices. Utilizing insitu methods such as Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS) and Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD), more and more oil can be extracted from the sands economically at a per barrel price of approximately $60. Plus, these methods have been proven to be able to extract 90% to 100% of all bitumen found in the mined ore. The efficiency of the Oil Sands could possibly far exceed that of any existing below surface well with regard to accessing the entire deposit.
Ten years can seem like a long time and the funny thing is, a lot can certainly happen in that span. While Mr. Acuna thinks Alberta may not be selling ANY oil in 10 years time, other local statistics seem to differ with that opinion. Aberta Venture Magazine noted in September of 2008:
"The development of Western Canada’s oilsands is changing the Canadian business landscape, shifting growth, migration and business investment from the centre to the West. The investments made in this sector result in a significant multiplier effect for the economy. The effects seen are not simply in the form of revenue generated by the oilsands, but the ripple effect it has on all industries. Within the next 10 years, an estimated $250 billion will be spent on non-residential construction alone in Alberta." (Emphasis here and below added by FC)
It certainly doesn't sound like the local economy is going to be hurting too bad as the Athabasca Sands are mined.
In May of 2008, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) projected:
"Oil sands production, which now exceeds one million b/d, is forecast to reach 3.5 million b/d by 2015 and 4.0 million b/d by 2020, accounting for more than 80 per cent of Canadian production."
I don't know, again, my math is kind of fuzzy, but it sounds to me like there's going to oil coming out of Alberta for quite some time. In fact, this level of production equates to approximately 100 years of steady flow until it begins to become tapped out. Ten times longer than Mr. Acuna's non partisan 'research' group came up with.
Folks, what do you think? Agenda driven? More than likely. I can't see how anybody, let alone the Executive Director of a supposed non partisan group based right in Alberta where the Oil Sands are located can come up with a perspective this far off point. If we dig a little deeper and follow the money to the funding of this group I'm sure we'll find even more answers. The Parkland Institute is apparently affiliated with the University of Alberta which may help explain things. Also, the original article states that "Alberta could be an international leader when it comes to wind and solar power." Could the university be working on some new wind and solar power projects? Do any company's in the wind and solar power generation fields fund the university and/or the Parkland Group? Only a little more research and time will tell. More time than what the Parkland Institute put into this research for Executive Director Acuna, of course.
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